Racial Disparity in Federal Pretrial Detention Recommendations: Trends Over Two Decades and Association with Risk Assessment Implementation

Risk assessment instruments could help reduce unnecessary pretrial detention by prioritizing lower risk defendants for release, but some stakeholders fear they could worsen racial disparities. The authors examine changes in racial disparities in federal detention recommendations from 2004 to 2024, focusing on the potential impact of the Pretrial Risk Assessment (PTRA). Analyzing data from over 650,000 cases, they track disparities, with particular attention to PTRA implementation events in 2011 and 2014. Results show (a) a 75 percent decrease in racial disparities over the study period and (b) a significant and sustained drop in disparities following a marker of achieving full PTRA implementation in 2011. The findings underscore the potential value of structured human decision-making in reducing racial bias and supporting pretrial reform.